Trump voter regret is clearly registering now
As President Donald Trump’s poll numbers have hit new lows amid the Iran war, there’s now the firmest evidence yet of a long-anticipated dynamic: the regretful Trump voter.
While a fair number of Trump voters have had reservations for a while, a series of polls in recent weeks shows those reservations are starting to tip over into something more serious.
A YouGov poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst — a survey we’ve spotlighted before on this issue — is the hardest evidence.
Rather than ask a straight question about whether people regret their votes, the poll offers a sliding scale of more-nuanced options, including “some concerns,” “mixed feelings” and “some regrets,” rather than just full-on regret.
In April 2025, 74% of Trump voters scorned any of those options and said they were “very confident” in their vote. But today, that number has declined to 62%.
The 38% of Trump voters who chose a less-resolute option was double the 19% of Kamala Harris voters who did the same.
Of that 38%, 21% of Trump voters said they were still “confident” in their votes but had “some concerns.”
And the percentage who declined to express confidence in their vote — and said they at least had “mixed feelings” — has gone from 8% in April 2025 to 17% today.
Just 5% said they regret their vote and would vote differently if they could. But that appears to actually undersell the level of regret.
When given a chance to recast their 2024 votes, in fact, just 84% of Trump voters said they would vote for him again — compared to 91% for Harris voters.
So while some might prefer to not call it “regret,” 16% would apparently do things differently with hindsight.
A Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll from around the same time fills out the regretful picture.
It found 13% of Trump voters said they either “strongly” (5%) or “somewhat” (8%) regret their vote — double the number for Harris voters.
Regret was particularly high among Trump voters under 30 years old (17%) and Hispanics (16%).
The percentage of Trump voters expressing regret is not only double the percentage for Harris voters; it’s also double the 6-7% of Trump voters who said the same in polling last April and October from the Washington Post and Ipsos.
Supporters at a campaign rally for President Donald Trump at Arnold Palmer Regional Airport on October 20, 2024 in Latrobe, Pennsylvania.
Jeff Swensen/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Just to underscore, these surveys suggest between 1 in 8 and 1 in 6 Trump voters express some measure of regret for their 2024 votes. Were those percentages to desert the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections, it would almost undoubtedly be a wave election for Democrats.
And this is hardly the only proof of Trump’s base softening on him. While there has been plenty of talk about how self-described MAGA supporters back the Iran war, it’s clear lots of voters in Trump’s base don’t.
And a CNN poll this week showed a real softness on that issue and plenty of others.
Here are the percentages of 2024 Trump voters who disapproved of him in each of these areas:
Overall: 22%
Immigration: 15%
Foreign affairs: 25%
Iran: 28%
Economy: 30%
Inflation: 39%
Gas prices: 45%
Those are large chunks of Trump’s voter base who disapprove of him on some of the central issues of the day — and some of the central issues he campaigned on. At this point, whether those voters technically subscribe to the word “regret” is kind of beside the point.
And in case it wasn’t clear how much Trump’s base has soured on him, consider this nugget from CNN’s poll:
“Working-class White voters” has become shorthand for the kind of voter Trump has locked down to great political effect. And 63% approved of him in a February 2025 CNN poll.
His approval rating among them in the new CNN poll? Just 49%.
BREAKING: Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base
In casting his ballot for President Donald Trump, Alabama resident Gray Holland said a big factor was his belief that Trump would avoid another war in the Middle East.
“He really ran on the concept of no wars,” Holland said.
Now the U.S. is at war with Iran and Holland, a 25-year-old Republican from Birmingham who works in sales for a flooring manufacturer said he’s not happy with the president’s decision.
“I’d rather not be involved in another foreign war with Iran or whoever else it may be in the Middle East at the time,” Holland said. “I just think we need to stay out of it and worry about ourselves.”
Polls show most Americans disapprove of the Iran war, and while older Republicans have largely stood behind Trump, younger ones are much more likely than their elders to oppose it.
A Pew Research Center survey released last month found that less than half – 49% - of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents age 18 to 29 approve of Trump’s handling of Iran.
Overall, 69% of Republicans and those who lean Republican approve of how Trump is handling the Iran conflict, with support increasing by age, according to the Pew survey. Among Republicans and Republican leaners 65 and older, 84% approve of Trump's record on Iran, while 79% approve in the 50 to 64 age group and 60% among those 30 to 49.
Among all Americans, the poll found that just 37% support Trump's approach to Iran.
Facing deep skepticism about the war at home, Trump has pushed to end the conflict, announcing a ceasefire April 7 and negotiations in Pakistan to find a permanent settlement. The ceasefire appears to be on shaky ground, though, as both sides accuse the other of not abiding by the agreement. The prospect of more fighting remains, an outcome that could further divide Republicans heading into the November midterm election.
“Diminished” opinion of Trump
Trump made gains with young voters in his successful 2024 campaign, winning 39% of voters under 30 compared with 35% in 2020.
But now some of his younger supporters are growing disillusioned by his decision to launch a war that they think violates his campaign promises. "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars," Trump said on election night in 2024.
Trump campaigned as a staunch critic of previous U.S. wars in the Middle East and lately has been accused of betrayal by some who subscribed to his anti-interventionist, “America First” pledges.
Prominent Trump supporters such as podcaster Joe Rogan, whose large audience includes many younger men, have been critical of the Iran war.
“It just seems so insane based on what he ran on,” said Rogan, who endorsed Trump in 2024. “I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right?”
Holland said Trump’s campaign rhetoric about Middle East conflicts was “at the forefront of one of my decisions to vote for him.”
“I just thought we should stay out of anything over there at the time, and I thought he would do it, and he hasn’t,” Holland said. “So it’s definitely diminished my opinion of him.”
Some young Republicans told USA TODAY they're concerned about the cost-of-living and would rather see Trump focus on economic issues than Iran. Holland pointed to the cost of housing.
“There’s so many other problems at home we need to focus on other than Iran,” Holland said.
'I have huge issues with it'
Nevada Republican Morgan Kern said her top concern is providing for her family.
“We most definitely need to protect the American people… but sending young men and women over to fight a war is not top in my list of priorities,” said Kern, who works in insurance.
Kern, 46, voted for Trump. She has personal reasons to be concerned about the war.
“I have huge issues with it just because I have two children in the military, I would rather them not have to go to war,” she said.
Kern is not sure if the war was justified, she doesn’t feel like she has enough information. But she questioned the threat Iran posed.
“I’m most definitely not for it until I feel that we are really threatened,” she said, adding: “I don’t feel that we’re super-threatened as of yet.”
Most Republicans support Trump on Iran
Even as many younger Republicans and some prominent MAGA voices fret about Iran, the GOP base is still largely behind Trump on the war.
The demographic divide within the GOP on Iran is mirrored in the larger population. Just 19% of all U.S. adults age 18 to 34 say they approve of how Trump is handling Iran, compared with 41% of adults 45 and older, according to a CNN/SSRS survey. A survey by The Economist/YouGov found that only 13% of adults age 18 to 29 support the war.
Dartmouth professor Jeff Friedman noted that younger voters grew up with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, conflicts that the public became disenchanted with.
“I think that really cast a pall over public attitudes towards military force,” said Friedman, who studies the politics around foreign policy.
Older voters saw the U.S. “win the Cold War and decisively win the 1991 Gulf War,” Friedman added. Older Republicans also came of age at a time when the GOP was “more committed to a robust military presence abroad,” he said.
Republican Vernon Sommers, 62, said so far the “positive outweighs the negative” for him when it comes to Iran.
“From my perspective it seems like it had to be done because they weren't relenting on their desire to make a nuclear weapon,” added Sommers, a retired former masonry company owner in Sarasota, Florida, who voted for Trump.
Minnesota Republican Jessica Stawarski, 43, voted for Trump three times and continues to support him. She trusts the administration on the Iran war, although she has concerns about a protracted conflict.
“I know he ran on no forever wars and no stupid wars, so I feel like there must be a good reason for it,” said Stawarski, a Waite Park resident who works for a salvage yard.
“If it goes longer... then I’ll be a little more hesitant to support it but as of right now I do support the administration,” she added.
Sommers acknowledged that if the war drags on it could hurt the GOP, pointing to spiking gas prices.
"It doesn't matter if it's the Democrats or the Republicans in office, if you have things going wrong with the economy that seems to be one of the biggest drivers of people going to the polls and wanting change," he said.
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Any erosion in Trump’s GOP support could add to the party’s already considerable challenges heading into the midterm election. Democrats won a series of electoral victories in 2025 and 2026 that have raised questions about whether a blue wave is building.
“We live in this country where the electoral margins are razor thin… if this is the kind of thing that swings public opinion for the Republican Party by half a percentage point that can be decisive,” Friedman said.
